Learning Center

Free education on prediction markets, arbitrage mechanics, liquidity, fees and risk.

Prediction Markets 101

The core idea of buying the same outcome on opposite sides of two markets for a combined price below $1.

YES pays $1 if the event happens; NO pays $1 if it doesn't. Their prices are linked.

Fragmented liquidity, different trader bases, jurisdiction limits and information flow create persistent gaps.

Combined cost, gross spread, fees, net spread and annualized return — step by step.

When the two contracts you paired resolve differently, both legs can lose. Contract matching is everything.

Resolution criteria, sources, timing and cancellation policies differ across platforms — read them before trading.

Liquidity caps how much capital you can actually deploy at the quoted price. Thin books mean slippage.

Fees are the silent killer of small spreads. Model them before believing any gross number.