Risk Disclosure
Last updated: October 2026
1. Trading Risk
Prediction-market arbitrage is not risk-free. Opportunities displayed are estimates based on current market data. Prices, liquidity, fees and market conditions may change before trades are completed. Returns are not guaranteed.
2. Execution Risk
Arbitrage requires two legs across two platforms. The first leg can fill while the second's price moves, converting an intended arbitrage into a directional position. Slippage and position limits can materially reduce realized returns.
3. Settlement Risk
Contract settlement criteria can differ across platforms — different resolution sources, thresholds, timing and cancellation policies. If two paired contracts resolve differently, both legs can lose. Users are responsible for reviewing all contract rules before entering positions.
4. Liquidity Risk
Displayed maximum sizes are estimates from book depth at a point in time. Actual fillable size at the displayed price may be smaller.
5. Platform Risk
Third-party platforms may impose fees, position limits, account restrictions, or downtime. MarketSplits has no control over third-party platforms.
6. Past Opportunities
Past opportunities do not guarantee future results. Historical spreads and outcomes are not predictive.